what-if-oracle

Phase 1 — Frame the Question

Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:

Decompose into components:

• The Variable: What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis)
• The Magnitude: By how much? (quantify if possible)
• The Timeframe: Over what period?
• The Context: What's the current state before the change?

If the question is vague, sharpen it:

• "What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?"
• "What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?"

Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding.

Phase 2 — Map the Possibility Space

Generate 4-6 scenario branches using this framework:

Branch	Definition	Purpose
Ω Best Case	Everything goes right. Key assumptions all validate. Lucky breaks occur.	Define the ceiling — what's the maximum upside?
α Likely Case	Most probable path given current evidence. No major surprises.	Anchor expectations in reality
Δ Worst Case	Key assumptions fail. Two things go wrong simultaneously.	Define the floor — what's the maximum downside?
Ψ Wild Card	An unexpected variable enters that nobody is tracking. Black swan territory.	Stress-test for the unimaginable
Φ Contrarian	The opposite of the consensus view turns out to be true.	Challenge groupthink and reveal hidden assumptions
∞ Second Order	The first-order effects trigger cascading consequences nobody predicted.	Map the ripple effects

Phase 3 — Analyze Each Branch

For each scenario branch, provide: